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Re: Global Warming: Real or Fraud [message #415470 is a reply to message #415346] Fri, 25 December 2009 06:36 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
SPIKDUM is currently offline  SPIKDUM
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surth? / surth! wrote on Thu, 24 December 2009 12:22

SPIKDUM wrote on Thu, 24 December 2009 11:15

MUDKIPS here (WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED)
Since I study archaeology and Quarternary Climate is one of my subjects, I can give some insight. Prepare for one ungodly novel. (ok not as ungodly as I thought, I didn't include some delta-18 readings because frankly that is a little over the top. Let's just say I have a gazillion ice core and foraminifera and pollen and coleoptera graphs to prove at least some part of my point)

Climates don't just change because of one factor. In theory they do, but in practice it's always a combination of factors that causes climate changes. Solar activity, Albedo (solar energy that gets reflected off the earth's surface) volcanic activity, shifts in the earth's polarity (Every so often the South Pole becomes the magnetic centre of the earth) continent vs. ocean coverage, the earth's wobble, precession and tilt, etc.
Scientists (and I mean REAL scientists, who look at ice cores, pollen data, coleoptera data, whatever, who use real tangible evidence instead of modern-day CO2 measuremeants which are far less reliable and far more biased) have gotten quite good at predicting climatic events, and so we've been able to map out climate changes to GREAT precision for the last 2,7 million years, moderate precision for the past 65 million years, and we only have bits and pieces of the climate before that, we only know it was HOT.
To make a long story short, every period is either a glacial (a period in which the ice sheet GROWS) or an interglacial (a period where the ice sheet doesn't grow or is RECEDING), in the earth's history. Within glacials and interglacials we have stadials and interstadials (periods that are hotter or colder than the glacial/interglacial's mean temperature). It's always a back and forth. We have 10,000 year periods with as many as 27 interstadials and stadials, and we have 50,000 years of constant glaciation (periods in which glaciers grow, a sign of glacialism).
Now this has been happening for about 2 billion years, and it has ALWAYS been a back-and-forth matter. Average temperatures can drop for 7 degrees across the planet that last just a 100 years (the 8.2k cal BP event for instance) after which they soar back up, after which they drop again (The little ice age in the 1600s, where the temperature was on average 3 degrees celcius lower than it is now, while in the middle ages the average temperature was 2 degrees celcius higher than it is now).

So what we have is thousands of factors that are constantly going back and forth, unchangingly, predictably, for millions and millions of years. Whether we eject a shitload of CO2 in the atmosphere or whether we limit it doesn't matter, because the earth IS heating up, and it isn't because of CO2, it's because of a ton of causes that are working together.
That doesn't mean we shouldn't be irresponsible with our exhausts and fuel consumption, what it does mean is that everybody is going crazy thinking that WE have any influence on the changing climate, while we at best have regional impacts (for instance a dense city in a mountain region will retain a lot of it's CO2 in the... region obviously, having local effects).

So take it easy, sit back, and watch what happens.

(Note, a lot of people may call bullshit, and I don't blame them. The difference between our (archaeoloists') data and say, Al Gore's data is that Al Gore set out to prove that we cause climate changes, while the archaeological, geological and paleobotanical data we gather is purely for understanding why and how climate changes and how it affects the world, more specifically, the human(oid) world. Biased vs unbiased.)

it's so hard to admit I'm wrong Sad

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